Market Overview – September 2025

As we enter the final quarter of 2025, we at Helix Ice remain committed to sharing our insights and updates from the Nordic NPL market. This year has so far followed the patterns we anticipated, and activity levels have confirmed a stable landscape for both sellers and investors.

While summer is often a quieter period for the NPL market, 2025 has shown continued activity across several Nordic markets, particularly Sweden and Finland. Demand is growing, primarily driven by niche banks preparing more portfolios for sale. At the same time, we have seen an entry of larger international investors who have made their first investments in the Nordic NPL market. With fewer delays and a shift from ‘wait-and-see’ strategies to more concrete discussions and closed transactions, the market now offers attractive entry points and strong IRR potential for investors ready to act.

The growing interest from investors to establish a presence in the Nordics confirms the perception of the region as a stable and well-regulated market with strong operational partners and reliable collection infrastructure. We continue to support these investors by identifying opportunities, structuring investments, and creating clear paths to successful execution.

A notable recent transaction is Hoist Finance’s expansion into Finland, where they acquired a medium-sized portfolio from Lowell – marking Hoist’s first portfolio acquisition in Finland. This illustrates the growing confidence from established players in the Nordic market. At the same time, rumours suggest Lowell may be exploring a divestment of its Nordic operations, indicating further potential shifts in market structure and ownership.

We are also seeing the impact of new regulatory developments in Sweden, with updated rules on consumer lending and additional licensing requirements to follow in 2026. These changes raise the regulatory bar and may lead to consolidation as smaller players exit. For established actors, this opens new opportunities – creating a healthier and more professional investment environment with improved transparency, higher-quality portfolios, and increased investor confidence.

In parallel, the UK market has seen notable activity with potential relevance for the Nordics. In June, NorthWall Capital acquired the £277 million securitisation from Lowell. The deal highlights continued institutional appetite for structured NPL investments and confirms the viability of scalable securitisation platforms – a model that could increasingly be replicated in the Nordics.

While traditional Forward Flow and One-Off transactions remain the preferred options for sellers in the Nordics, interest in structured solutions remains strong, with two securitization transactions communicated by Marginalen Bank and Avida Finans this summer. Appetite for these types of deals continues to grow, even though administrative burdens remain a challenge.

It’s also worth noting the ongoing momentum among Nordic niche banks going public. Enity IPO’d on June 13th, and NOBA Bank—the largest niche bank in the Nordics—has announced plans to list on Nasdaq Stockholm before the end of September. This follows the strong performance of TF Bank, Norion Bank, and Enity, all with rising stock prices through 2025, signalling growing market attention and confidence.

We remain optimistic about the remainder of 2025. Our pipeline suggests sustained high activity with several sellers preparing year-end transactions and early tenders for Q1 2026 sales.

2026 looks to be an even more active year, with increased market maturity, broader investor interest, and continued innovation in deal structures. Positive economic signals in the region, combined with strong operational performance from collection partners, provide a solid foundation for value creation.

Feel free to contact us for a dialogue regarding the NPL market and to discuss upcoming transactions, different types of securitization solutions, market opportunities, or strategic collaborations. If you’re planning to visit the Nordics, we’d be happy to meet up. Reach out to schedule a meeting.